Envisioning Digital Europe 2030: Scenario Design on ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling

Abstract

The paper outlines a set of proposed visionary scenarios on how governance and policy modelling could develop by 2030. These scenarios have been designed through a foresight exercise conducted by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) as part of the CROSSROAD Project, a support action of the European Commission 7th Framework Programme. After presenting the conceptual framework and methodological approach followed, the main results of the trends analysis conducted as part of the project are discussed. This entails the presentation of societal trends and a deeper analysis of policy and research trends that are considered central for understanding and mapping ICT research for prospective governance and policy modelling. Based on the framework proposed, four internally-consistent views of what the European Information Society might be by 2030 have been designed. The resulting scenarios and the consequent implications for citizens, businesses and public services are then presented. The timeframe in which certain (or all) the elements of the visions will occur are influenced by the technological and societal ¿speed of change¿. However, considering the unprecedented growth and speed of take up experienced in several research areas under investigation, it is argued that the world we will be living in by 2030 will be radically different from the world we are living in today. Finally, the key areas of expected change and the research challenges identified for building a Digital Europe twenty years from now are presented.