Climate Change and Floods in Europe

Abstract

Floods are the most common natural disaster in Europe. Recent advances in climate modelling suggest that global warming will intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the magnitude and frequency of intense precipitation events in most parts of Europe, especially in the central and northern parts. This will likely contribute to an increase in flood hazard triggered by intense rain, particularly the occurrence of flash floods. Flood hazard may also rise during wetter and warmer winters, with increasingly more frequent rain and less frequent snow. On the other hand, ice-jam and early spring snowmelt floods are likely to reduce because of warming. This paper addresses the state-of-the-art on the assessment of flood risk in Europe under a changing climate, as well as on adaptation measures. We list some important research challenges and detail the European dimension in flood risk management.