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|Title:||Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensifying teleconnection patterns|
|Authors:||MENTASCHI LORENZO; VOUSDOUKAS MICHAIL; VOUKOUVALAS EVANGELOS; DOSIO ALESSANDRO; FEYEN LUC|
|Citation:||GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS vol. 44 no. 5 p. 2416–2426|
|Publisher:||AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||In this study we conducted a comprehensive modelling analysis to identify global trends in extreme Wave Energy Flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emissions pathway (RCP8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100-year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the Southern Temperate Zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) and more extreme wave activity.|
|JRC Directorate:||Space, Security and Migration|
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