Title: Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways
Authors: LUDERER GUNNARVRONTISI ZOIBERTRAM CHRISTOPHEDELENBOSCH OREANEPIETZCKER ROBERTROGELJ JOERIDE BOERC HARMEN SYTZEDROUET LAURENTEMMERLING JOHANNESFRICKO OLIVIERFUJIMORI SHINICHIROHAVLIK PETRIYER GOKULKERAMIDAS KIMONKITOUS ALBAN GABRIELPEHL MICHAJAKREY VOLKERRIAHI KEYWANSAVEYN BERTTAVONI MASSIMOVAN VUUREN DETLEFKRIEGLER ELMAR
Citation: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE vol. 8 p. 626–633
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Publication Year: 2018
JRC N°: JRC108391
ISSN: 1758-678X
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC108391
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0198-6
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2 emissions, of which residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2 during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2 by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO2 removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO2 commitments are increased by 160–330 GtCO2, further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 °C goal and increasing dependence on CO2 removal.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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