Title: Consequences of global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa
Authors: POKAM MBA WLONGANDJO G-NMOUFOUMA-OKIA WBELL J-PJAMES RACHELVONDOU D AHAENSLER AFOTSO-NGUEMO T CGUENANG G MTCHOTCHOU A L DKAMSU-TAMO P HTAKONG R RNIKULIN GRIGORYLENNARD CHRISTOPHERDOSIO ALESSANDRO
Citation: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS vol. 13 p. 055011
Publisher: IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Publication Year: 2018
JRC N°: JRC110704
ISSN: 1748-9326
URI: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab048/meta
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC110704
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab048
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable regions where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an ensemble of 25 transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differ considerably over Central Africa for 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate of lack consensus across the region, though there is tendency towards decrease of seasonal precipitation and reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, significant increase of consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5-day rainfall are detected between 1.5°C vs. 2°C global warming levels.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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