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|Title:||Hydrocarbon Exploration Risk Evaluation Through Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Techniques|
|Authors:||RUFFO Paolo; BAZZANA Livia; CONSONNI Alberto; CORRADI Anna; SALTELLI ANDREA; TARANTOLA STEFANO|
|Citation:||RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY vol. 91 p. 1155-1162|
|Publisher:||ELSEVIER SCI LTD|
|JRC Publication N°:||JRC31445|
|Type:||Articles in Journals|
|Abstract:||The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental com¬ponent of the decision process related to the ex¬ploratory phase. In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sen¬sitivity approach. The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geo¬metric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncer¬tainty. The geometric uncertainty evalua¬tion makes use of geostatistical techniques, that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data. The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap. The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, to¬gether with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure prob¬ability map, the drainage area prob¬ability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap filling scenarios.|
|JRC Institute:||Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen|
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