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|Title:||Seasonal Weather Forecasts for Crop Yield Modelling in Europe|
|Authors:||CANTELAUBE Pierre; TERRES JEAN|
|Citation:||TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY vol. 57/A p. 476-487|
|Publisher:||BLACKWELL PUBL LTD|
|JRC Publication N°:||JRC32439|
|Type:||Articles in Journals|
|Abstract:||JRC contribution to the DEMETER project consisted to test ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts potential for crop yield forecasting. An ensemble of crop yield is obtained and a probability distribution function (PDF) can be derived. Preliminary results of wheat yield simulations in Europe using downscale DEMETER seasonal wheater forecasts suggest that reliable crop yield predictions can be obtained. A significant gain in precocity is noticed when compared to the operational system. Furthermore, PDFs of wheat yield provides information on both the yield anomaly and the reliability of the forecast. Based on the spread of the PDF, the end-user can directly quantify the benefits and risks of taking weather-sensitive decisions.|
|JRC Institute:||Institute for Environment and Sustainability|
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