Title: Seasonal Weather Forecasts for Crop Yield Modelling in Europe
Authors: CANTELAUBE PierreTERRES JEAN
Citation: TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY vol. 57/A p. 476-487
Publisher: BLACKWELL PUBL LTD
Publication Year: 2005
JRC N°: JRC32439
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC32439
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: JRC contribution to the DEMETER project consisted to test ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts potential for crop yield forecasting. An ensemble of crop yield is obtained and a probability distribution function (PDF) can be derived. Preliminary results of wheat yield simulations in Europe using downscale DEMETER seasonal wheater forecasts suggest that reliable crop yield predictions can be obtained. A significant gain in precocity is noticed when compared to the operational system. Furthermore, PDFs of wheat yield provides information on both the yield anomaly and the reliability of the forecast. Based on the spread of the PDF, the end-user can directly quantify the benefits and risks of taking weather-sensitive decisions.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.