Title: Bayesian Analysis of Flaw Sizing Data of NESC III Exercise
Authors: GANDOSSI LUCASIMOLA Kaisa
Citation: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRESSURE VESSELS AND PIPING vol. 83 p. 654-662
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Publication Year: 2006
JRC N°: JRC33232
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC33232
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: Non-destructive inspections are performed to give confidence on the non-existence of flaws exceeding a certain safe limit in the inspected structural component. The principal uncertainties related to these inspections are the probability of not detecting an existing flaw longer than a given size, the probability of a false call, and the uncertainty related to the sizing of a flaw. Inspection reliability models aim at accounting for these uncertainties. This paper presents the analysis of sizing uncertainty of flaws for the results of NESC III Round Robin Trials on defect-containing dissimilar metal welds. Model parameters are firstly estimated to characterize the sizing capabilities of various teams. A Bayesian updating of flaw size distribution is then demonstrated by combining information from measurement results and sizing performance.
JRC Institute:Institute for Energy and Transport

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