Title: EC-JRC Ensemble Approach to Long Range Atmospheric Dispersion
Authors: GALMARINI STEFANO
Citation: Proceedings of the Meeting of the Coordination Group on Nuclear Emergency Response Activities
Publisher: World Meteorological Organization
Publication Year: 2006
JRC Publication N°: JRC33301
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC33301
Type: Contributions to Conferences
Abstract: Long range transport and dispersion (LRTD) models are used operationally by meteorological offices and environmental protection agencies to forecast the consequences of the release of harmful material to the atmosphere at regional scale. The differences in model results are inevitable and can pose serious problems to their use for civil protection or countermeasures management in the case of trans-boundary dispersion. The multi-model Ensemble Dispersion Modeling (EDM) approach presented consists of the treatment and analysis of several long range transport and dispersion model forecast. It is based on the real-time consultation of the results of several LRTD models and on the use of ad-hoc ensemble statistical parameters to determine the level of reliability of the forecast. The system is periodically used for “dry-runs” and it has also been. The ENSEMBLE system has been existing since 6 years and it is now migrating to its version 2.0. The system has been recently adopted by the EU 25+3 members states Competent Authorities as the official system for the exchange, inter-comparison and redissemination of dispersion forecast is case of nuclear accidents at the long range.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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