Title: Spatial Permeability Model at the European Union Land Border
Authors: STEPHENNE MASSART NATHALIEPESARESI MARTINO
Publisher: European Commission
Publication Year: 2006
JRC N°: JRC34442
Other Identifiers: EUR 22332 EN
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC34442
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: In the frame of the ISFEREA action, the JRC IPSC carried out an analysis of the permeability of the EU Eastern land border to a specific class of illegal migration flows. This analysis is based on a preliminary version of a spatial quantitative model of the "green border" permeability. This model was built on the assumption that the flow of illegal migrants is function of the geographical permeability of the border and crossing points, the efficacy to control them by the Authorities, and also function of the driving force defined by people's willingness to cross (push and pull factors). The spatial model developed by the JRC attempts to represent in deep only the first part of this equation, while the modularity of the proposed model may allows further development for a more comprehensive explanation the illegal migration phenomena. With the present release the model uses as input more than 20 spatial datasets ranging from satellite remotely-sensed data, land use land cover, digital terrain model, weather and environmental conditions, presence of population, infrastructures, and physical obstacles, and presence of border control points. The model is focused on the geographic permeability related to a standard adult person having illegal behavior and deciding to cross the green border by foot. The basic criteria implemented in the current release are built around three concepts: the rapidity of walking allowed by the terrain and the weather conditions (walk), the possibility to hide by the physical environment (hide), and the probability to be stopped by a border police agent (secure). The geographic permeability is conceptualized as function inverse of the friction surface calculated using fuzzy multi-criteria methodology with a spatial resolution of 1 kilometer. Friction statistics are related to specific spatial contexts around the border lines (from 1 to 50 km) aggregated at the national and sub-national level between different countries. The model confirms the two major entry routes into Europe: the Ukrainian border and the Turkish section of the Greek border. The model shows also the high sensitivity of the potential corridor of Norway but the high number of border points at this boundary seems to be sufficient to protect this entry point. The report concludes that, in spite of limitations linked to data collection and availability, the permeability maps which resulted from this study show the high potential of such a model for the analysis of potential and actual migration flows and related policy planning. This tool could provide an opportunity to test different “what-if” scenarios about the driving forces of illegal migratory flows at the external EU land border, to prioritize investments of Member States in border management infrastructures at EU level, and to develop policy advice for relevant internal and external EU policies. This modeling tool can help estimate the impact on permeability of concrete measures, such as changes in the number of border points or number of border guards and in their level of equipment at these particular points. The flexibility of the model also allows for the input of additional data like typology of border points, in order to improve the results. Finally, the development of a more comprehensive model would require the co-operation of and contribution from relevant authorities of the EU Member States as well as FRONTEX.
JRC Institute:Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen

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