Title: Simulating Urban and Regional Evolutions: Scenarios of Development in three Study Cases: Algarve Province (Portugal), Dresden-Prague Transport Corridor (Germany-Czech Republic) and Friuli-Venezia Giulia Region (Italy)
Authors: PETROV LAURA
Citation: Proceedings of International Conference on Regional and Urban Modelling p. Paper 1698
Publisher: EcoMod
Publication Year: 2006
JRC N°: JRC36755
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC36755
Type: Contributions to Conferences
Abstract: Among other causes the analysis of urban areas and their development has particular relevance because of their growing exposure to natural hazards, particularly floods and forest fires. Inappropriate regional and urban planning can exacerbate the negative effects of natural hazards. On the other hand, good land management and planning practices, including appropriate land use and development control in natural hazard-prone areas, represent suitable non-structural solutions to minimise exposure and damage. This paper aims to provide a coherent basis for the spatial planning and management of landscapes in Europe. The MOLAND Model for urban and regional scenario simulation (Barredo et al., 2004; White et al., 1999) is used to evaluate spatial planning for sustainable urban and regional development and measures for natural risks reduction. We describe the application of the MOLAND Model on the two case studies, the Algarve Province in Portugal and the Dresden – Prague transport corridor in Germany and in the Czech Republic. Urban simulations offer a useful approach to understanding the consequences of current spatial planning policies. The scenarios are considered to generate data of meaningful representations of the region’s characteristics whilst still allowing the model to process data in response to the wide variety of possible policy packages specified by the user. The new tool will enhance support to European policies of sustainable development and the derivation of current strategies regarding the adaptation to extreme weather events.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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