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|Title:||Assessing Operational Forecasting Skill of EFAS|
|Authors:||BARTHOLMES JENS; THIELEN DEL POZO JUTTA; GENTILINI Simone|
|Citation:||The 3rd HEPEX workshop - Book of Abstract p. 13-15|
|Type:||Contributions to Conferences|
|Abstract:||The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) is now producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode for over 2 years at the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). EFAS is aiming at increasing preparedness for floods in transnational European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information between 3 to10 days in advance. It is providing EFAS information reports regarding forecasted riverine flood events to the collaborating national hydro-meteorological services. Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) for receiving these forecasts have been established for ca. 80% of the area of all European trans-national river basins. In this work 2 years of existing operational hydrological forecasts are being assessed statistically and skill of EFAS is analysed in several ways. The goal is to show where the strengths of such a large scale system lie but also where the limits of predictability and limits of skill scores in this context are.|
|JRC Institute:||Institute for Environment and Sustainability|
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