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|Title:||Modelling Future Land Use Changes in Europe: Applying the MOLAND Urban and Regional Development Model in Algarve, Portugal|
|Authors:||PETROV LAURA; LAVALLE CARLO; BARREDO CANO JOSE'; SAGRIS VALENTINA; KASANKO MARJO|
|Citation:||Proceedings of 25 Years IALE 2007 World Congress - Book of Abstract vol. 2 p. 1030-1031|
|JRC Publication N°:||JRC37962|
|Type:||Contributions to Conferences|
|Abstract:||Land use models are used as a tool to combine different aspects of the complex land use system and enable researchers to study the dynamics of this system (Overmars et al., 2005). Furthermore, land use models are applied to examine future alternative land use scenarios and inform policy makers before irreversible changes are made (Brown et al., 2004; Solecki and Oliveri, 2004). The MOLAND model for urban and regional scenario simulation (Barredo et al., 2004; Lavalle et al., 2004) is used to evaluate spatial planning for sustainable urban and regional development. The model predicts the likely future development of land use, for each year usually over the next ten to twenty-five years. MOLAND model is operating at both the micro-and macro-geographical levels. At the macro level are integrated several component sub-models, representing the natural, social, and economic sub-systems typifying the area studied. These are all linked to each other in a network of mutual reciprocal influence. At the micro level, a cellular automata-based model determine the fate of individual parcels of land based on their individual institutional and environmental characteristics as well as on the type of activities in their neighborhoods. The approach permits the straightforward integration of detailed physical, environmental, institutional variables, and the particulars of the transportation infrastructure. The MOLAND model was tailored to particular requirements such as touristy assessment and measures for improvement of Algarve Province needs and we created future scenarios of development of the region. By modifying the input data (e.g. zoning, suitability, transport links), the MOLAND model can be used to explore, in a realistic way, alternative future scenarios of land use development, population growth and spatial planning policies. The visualisation of different scenarios can support landscape management at the local and regional scales, identification of priority areas for intervention, test the potential consequences of certain policy options and complementing existing policies and programmes.|
|JRC Institute:||Institute for Environment and Sustainability|
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