Title: An Assessment of Weather-Related Risks in Europe: Maps of Flood and Drought Risks
Authors: LUGERI NICOLAGENOVESE ELISABETTALAVALLE CARLOBARREDO CANO JOSE'BINDI MarcoMORIONDO Marco
Publisher: OPOCE
Publication Year: 2007
JRC N°: JRC42287
ISSN: 1018-5593
Other Identifiers: EUR 23208 EN
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC42287
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: This technical report describes the adopted methodology and the outputs produced during the first 18 months of life of the 'ADAM' project. ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy) is an Integrated Project financed under thematic priority 'Global Change and Ecosystems' of the 6th framework programme (for further information, see www.adam.info) The task 'A2.1 - An assessment of weather-related risks in Europe' has the following main objective: 'Quantify and map weather-related extreme-event risks to public and private capital assets, human lives, and agriculture/forestry/tourism, and identify high-risk areas (hot spots) on which to focus more detailed analysis.' The key innovative aspects of the work herein presented are manifold: - the quantification of the probabilistic monetary impact of extreme events; - the combined use of modelling techniques and of observed data to supply the lack of information at the various scales of relevance of the study; - the estimation of uncertainty arising from limitations in data availability and modelling assumptions; - the geographical scale (continental) of the exercise. The key outputs of task A2.1 are digital maps of risks from natural extremes at European scale identifying monetary/economic losses. The maps are furnished as input to other tasks of package A2 for successive modelling exercises and analysis. As defined in the project work-plan, task A.21 has duration of 24 months. The 18-month deliverables are maps of flood and drought risks. The report focuses on inland river flood damage to properties and infrastructures and on climatic stresses (drought and heat waves) in agriculture. Population exposure has only been addressed in a partial study and it's therefore not included in the final monetary losses assessment. The work on floods has been carried out by the Institute for Environment and Sustainability of the Joint Research Centre; the work on droughts and heat waves by the Department of Agronomy and Land Management - University of Florence. The methodology is centred on the risk paradigm of the research community. The risk is defined as a product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability where: - Hazard is the threatening natural event including its probability/magnitude of occurrence; - Exposure is the values/humans that are present at the location related to a given event; - Vulnerability is the lack of resistance to damaging/destructive forces (damage function). This definition has been applied to extreme events such as floods and heat/water stresses, with the due adjustments required by data availability and specific modelling techniques.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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