Title: Quantitative Global Model for Armed Conflict Risk Assessment
Authors: KAYITAKIRE FRANCOISBURNLEY CLEMENTINE EWOKOLOBUDA Dirk
Publisher: OPOCE
Publication Year: 2008
JRC Publication N°: JRC46309
ISBN: 978-92-79-09489-7
ISSN: 1018-5593
Other Identifiers: EUR 23430 EN
OPOCE LB-NA-23430-EN-C
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC46309
DOI: 10.2788/83693
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: Tools for automated quantitative analysis of information are more and more required in the framework of early warning systems, to support political decision makers in making timely evaluations of the risk of severe crises. This report describes a scientifically sound approach to build a statistical model to assess quantitatively the risk of intra-state armed conflict in any country in the world. Our models are based on structural indicators, and they therefore make a static assessment of country level performance, which can then be ranked for conflict risk. The temporal trend provide additional information on the evolution of the situation. Attention is paid to operationalise this approach in early situation assessment.
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