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|Title:||Multi-Model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution|
|Authors:||FIORE Arlene; DENTENER Franciscus; WILD O.; CUVELIER Cornelis; SCHULTZ M.g.; HESS P.; TEXTOR C.; SCHULZ M.; DOHERTY R. M.; HOROWITZ L. W.; MACKENZIE I. A.; SANDERSON M. G.; SHINDELL D. T.; STEVENSON D. S.; SZOPA S.; VAN DINGENEN Rita; ZENG G.; ATHERTON C. S.; BERGMANN D. J.; BEY I.; CARMICHAEL G.; COLLINS W. J.; DUNCAN B. N.; FALUVEGI G.; FOLBERTH G.; GAUSS M.; GONG S.; HAUGLUSTAINE D.; HOLLOWAY T.; ISAKSEN I. S. A.; JACOB D. J.; JONSON J.e.; KAMINSKI J. W.; KEATING T. J.; LUPU A.; MARMER Elina; MONTANARO V.; PARK R.; PITARI G.; PRINGLE K. J.; PYLE J. A.; SCHROEDER S.; VIVANCO M. G.; WIND P.; WOJCIK G.; WU S.; ZUBER A.|
|Citation:||JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH vol. 114 p. D04301-1 D04301-21|
|Publisher:||AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION|
|Type:||Articles in Journals|
|Abstract:||A thorough understanding of the surface O3 response over a receptor region to emission changes over a foreign source region is needed to evaluate the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the average surface O3 response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. The ensemble mean O3 matches observed surface concentrations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over NA and EA. The sum of the O3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC perturbations is approximately equal to that with all three precursors reduced together, and we focus here on the response to combined reductions. The most robust annual mean responses across the models are that surface O3 concentrations over EU are most influenced by anthropogenic emissions reductions over NA (ensemble mean: 0.4 ppb; inter-model range: 0.2-0.5 ppb), and that emissions reductions over SA have the smallest effect on the other receptor regions (< 0.2 ppb). Emission reductions in the three foreign regions decrease annual mean surface O3 over the Asian regions by 0.2-0.4 ppb each, and reductions in EA and EU decrease annual mean O3 by 0.2 ppb each over NA, although the relative impacts vary by model. Applying these ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O3 of about 0.1 ppb yr-1, at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb yr-1 derived from observations. The ensemble mean surface O3 response to emission reductions in the 3 foreign regions combined is largest in spring and late fall (~0.8 ppb in all regions). We define an import sensitivity to gauge the relative contribution of foreign versus ¿domestic¿ (i.e., over the source region itself) emission changes for each region. This ratio ranges from 0.5 to 1.1 during the months of maximum foreign influence, and from 0.2 to 0.5 when domestic influence is largest. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in regional anthropogenic methane emissions would yield an O3 response over foreign receptor regions roughly equal to that produced by 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC and CO emissions.|
|JRC Institute:||Institute for Environment and Sustainability|
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