Title: Risk Evaluation Methods and Application to Energy Systems
Authors: COLLI AlessandraSERBANESCU DanALE Ben
Citation: The Research Agenda of Risk and Design Anno 2008, ISBN: 978-90-5638-206-3 p. 39-45
Publisher: TU Delft
Publication Year: 2008
JRC N°: JRC48418
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC48418
Type: Contributions to Conferences
Abstract: The work discusses different methodological approaches to evaluate, compare, and rank risks, with focus on energy systems. The core methodology is based on a comparative analysis which uses a set of 17 Risk Characterization Indicators (RCIs) to highlight different risk aspects, developed on the backbone of a causal structure for accident propagation in the energy sector. The RCIs are mainly event-oriented and they employ existing risk expressions, but they can be used in different contexts: (1) analysis of single events, (2) comparison of events with similar characteristics, (3) comparison of different energy technologies based on aggregated values, and (4) use within Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). An innovative grouping and ranking methodology based on the Boolean logic (PRA-based approach) is presented and discussed in comparison with other MCDA methods. In this context, the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methodology is also considered for the risk evaluation of new energy technologies, and it is proposed as a parallel approach to the main method. The final risk evaluation involves the expert judgment., which allows a cross comparison between historical and prognostic energy risks. Illustrative examples are referenced, based on published case studies. The different methods are discussed from the point of view of related benefits and limits.
JRC Institute:Institute for Energy and Transport

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