Title: The Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) Model: Dairy Reform and Western Balkan Countries Accession Scenarios
Authors: WITZKE Heinz PeterZINTL AndreaTONINI Axel
Publisher: European Commission
Publication Year: 2009
JRC N°: JRC50411
ISBN: 978-92-79-12985-8
ISSN: 1018-5593
Other Identifiers: EUR 23951 EN
OPOCE LF-NA-23951-EN-C
URI: http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=2519
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC50411
DOI: 10.2791/12495
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: The aim of this study is to provide and describe a multicommodity analysis able to focus and investigate two EU relevant agricultural policy aspects: the dairy reform and the enlargement to Western Balkan countries. The analysis is carried out using the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model developed in the early 1980s by EuroCARE and the University of Bonn on behalf of DG ESTAT. The model is further upgraded for this study in order to analyse the effects of the Health Check decisions on the EU dairy market as well as the impact of the EU enlargement towards Western Balkans countries. Key results of the main quota expiry scenario for 2020 are that milk production would increase by 3.1% in the EU-27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.3%. Accession effects in the Western Balkan countries would originate in some convergence to EU prices, in technology transfer which would increase yields, and in CAP components introduced on the Western Balkan like milk quotas or decoupled payments.
JRC Institute:Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

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