Title: EPS/EFAS Probabilistic Flood Prediction Over Northern Italy: The Case of 30 April 2009
Authors: BUIZZA RobertoPAPPENBERGER FlorianSALAMON PeterTHIELEN DEL POZO JuttaDE ROO Arie
Citation: ECMWF Newsletter no. 120 p. 10-16
Publisher: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Publication Year: 2009
JRC Publication N°: JRC52282
URI: http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/120.pdf
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC52282
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: ENSEMBLE hydrological predictions generated by the European Union Joint Research Centre European Flood Alert System (JRC EFAS) driven by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) have been used to assess the risk of flooding of the Po¿ river at the end of April 2009. This case illustrates the added value of using probabilistic flood predictions to signal the possible occurrence of flooding, and confirms statistically-based results published in the scientific literature. It shows that the key advantage of ensemble prediction systems,compared to systems that rely on one single forecast, is that they can be used not only to identify the most likely outcome, but also to assess the probability of occurrence of extreme/rare events.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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