Title: Progress in the Implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for Operational Flood Forecasting
Authors: CLOKE HannahTHIELEN DEL POZO JuttaPAPPENBERGER FlorianNOBERT SébastienBALINT GáborEDLUND CristinaKOISTINEN AriDE SAINT-AUBIN CélineSPROKKEREEF ErikVIEL ChristianSALAMON PeterBUIZZA Roberto
Citation: ECMWF Newsletter vol. 121 p. 20-24
Publisher: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Publication Year: 2009
JRC Publication N°: JRC53960
URI: http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/121.pdf
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC53960
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: The past decade has seen the operational flood forecasting community increasingly using Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for their forecasts. Many research studies over the past decade have shown that HEPS-based forecasts add value and can increase warning lead times. However, despite this, at present only a few flood forecasting centres around the world implement HEPS flood forecasting systems operationally (for a summary see Cloke & Pappenberger, 2009). There are many reasons for this, including a range of scientific, technical and cultural issues. For example, HEPS must receive and process large amounts of data generated by medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) weather forecasts (Thielen et al., 2008; Zappa et al., 2008). Furthermore, the computational burden of computing the flood forecasts themselves is also significant, as are the difficulties in understanding how best to base flood warning decisions on probabilistic forecasts.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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