Title: Communicating Uncertainty in Hydro-Meteorological Forecasts: Mission Impossible?
Authors: RAMOS Maria-HelenaMATHEVET ThibaultTHIELEN DEL POZO JuttaPAPPENBERGER Florian
Citation: METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS vol. 17 no. 2 p. 223-235
Publisher: JOHN WILEY & SONS INC
Publication Year: 2010
JRC N°: JRC55963
ISSN: 1350-4827
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55963
DOI: 10.1002/met.202
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: There is a common agreement in the scientific community that communicating uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts to water managers, civil protection authorities and other stakeholders is far from being a resolved issue. This paper focuses on the communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. Results from case studies conducted together with flood forecasting experts in Europe and operational forecasters from the hydroelectric sector in France are presented. They illustrate some key issues on dealing with probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and communicating uncertainty in operational flood forecasting.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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