Title: Biofuels: A model based assessment under uncertainty applying the Monte Carlo method
Authors: SCHADE BURKHARDWIESENTHAL Tobias
Citation: JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING vol. 33 no. 1 p. 92-126
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N°: JRC56690
ISSN: 0161-8938
URI: www.elsevier.com/locate/jpm
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC56690
DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.10.008
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: The deployment of biofuels depends on a variety of factors, some of which are inherently uncertain such as the outlook on the oil and feedstock prices or progress in advanced biofuel conversion technologies. The present paper systematically assesses the response of a biofuel simulation model under uncertainty, making use of the Monte Carlo method. On this basis, the expected opportunity losses are calculated for two theoretical biofuel policies. The paper demonstrates that such an approach allows ranking distinct policy options with regard to their risk levels despite the prevalence of important uncertainties in parameters.
JRC Institute:Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

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