Title: Development of a stock–recruit model for simulating stock dynamics for uncertain situations: the example of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus)
Authors: SIMMONDS EDMUNDCAMPBELL A.SKAGEN DankertROEL BeatrixKELLY C.
Citation: ICES JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE vol. 68 no. 5 p. 848–859
Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N°: JRC58231
ISSN: 1054-3139
URI: http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/68/5/848.full.pdf+html
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC58231
DOI: 10.1093/icesjms/fsr014
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: The assumption of relationship between recruitment and spawning stock is the cornerstone of both the Precautionary Approach and the use of a Maximum Sustainable Yield target for fisheries management, as the failure to include such relationship suggests that providing a measure of stock protection is unnecessary. The implications of fitting different functional forms and stochastic distributions to stock and recruit data are investigated. The importance of these considerations is shown by taking a practical example from a specific management problem: the management plans for North Eastern Atlantic (NEA) mackerel (Scomber scombrus) a major fish stock with average annual catch of 600,000 t. Commonly historic stock dynamics from a stock assessment explains only a small proportion of the recruitment variability. These data are used to investigate how best to reflect the uncertainty in the stock-recruit relationship. Selecting a single model based on simple statistical criteria can have major consequences for advice and is shown to be problematic. Selecting a distribution of models with derived probabilities gives a more complete perception of uncertainty in dynamics. Differences in functional form, distribution of deviations and variability of coefficients are allowed. The approach described appropriately incorporates uncertainty in stock dynamics in the exploitation advice.
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