Title: Assessing the uncertainty in population projections - A test based on the 12th coordinated population projection for Germany
Authors: ZEITZ Dirk
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2010
JRC Publication N°: JRC58249
ISBN: 978-92-79-15709-7
ISSN: 1018-5593
Other Identifiers: EUR 24355 EN
OPOCE LB-NA-24355-EN-N
URI: http://statind.jrc.it/jrc%20reports/EURDemo2010.pdf
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC58249
DOI: 10.2788/90191
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: In this paper I use variance based sensitivity analysis to investigate the uncertainty in projections of future population arising from the assumptions taken. Instead of for a limited number of scenarios the uncertainty is explored within the range of assumptions for the model parameters through sampling. To this purpose, the cohort component method and the assumptions taken in 12th coordinated population projection for Germany have been reengineered in a sensitivity analysis setting. This allows attributing the uncertainty in the outputs of the demographic model (e.g. size of the population) to the uncertainty in the model inputs (e.g. total fertility rates).
JRC Institute:Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen

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