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|Title:||Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems|
|Authors:||PAPPENBERGER Florian; BOGNER Konrad; WETTERHALL Frederick; YI He; CLOKE Hannah; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta|
|Citation:||Advances in Geosciences vol. 29 p. 27-32|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a fixed event forecast index (FEFI). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A high FEFI indicates a more inconsistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the annual maxima of FEFI decreases over the last 10 years; ensemble forecast, control and high resolution forecast have a different behaviour. The FEFI is influenced by the threshold, catchment size and catchment location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.|
|JRC Institute:||Institute for Environment and Sustainability|
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