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|Title:||Recent Decline in the Global Land Evapotranspiration Trend Due to Limited Moisture Supply|
|Authors:||JUNG Martin; REICHSTEIN Markus; CIAIS Philippe; SENEVIRATNE Sonia I.; SHEFFIELD Justin; GOULDEN Michael L.; BONAN Gordon; CHEN Jiquan; CESCATTI Alessandro; DE JEU Richard; DOLMAN A. Johannes; EUGSTER Werner; GERTEN Dieter; GIANELLE Damiano; GOBRON Nadine; HEINKE Jens; KIMBALL John; LAW Beverly E.; MONTAGNANI Leonardo; MU Qiaozhen; MUELLER Brigitte; OLESON Keith; PAPALE Dario; RICHARDSON Andrew D.; ROUPSARD Olivier; RUNNING Steve; TOMELLERI Enrico; VIOVY Nicolas; WEBER Ulrich; WILLIAMS Christopher; WOOD Eric; ZAEHLE Sonke; ZHANG Ke|
|Citation:||NATURE vol. 467 p. 951-954|
|Publisher:||NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water1. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle2 and to alter evapotranspiration (ET), with implications for ecosystem services and feedbacks to regional and global climate. ET changes may already be under way but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the land water cycle - a key diagnostic of the impacts of climate change and variability - remain uncertain. Using a global monitoring network3, meteorological and remote sensing observations, and a machine learning algorithm4 we provide a data-driven estimate of global land ET from 1982 to 2008. In addition we assessed ET variations over the same time period with an ensemble of process-based land surface models. Our results suggest that global annual ET increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 mm per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. Then, coincident with the last major El Nino event in 1998, the global ET increase appears to have ceased until 2008. This downward trend change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the southern hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil moisture limitation on ET largely explains the recent decline of the global land ET trend . Whether the changing behaviour of ET is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for Earth System Science.|
|JRC Directorate:||Sustainable Resources|
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