Title: Potential Iimpacts of a Turkish EU-membership on Agri-food Markets
Authors: SALAMON PetraVAN LEEUWEN MyrnaTABEAU AndrzejKOÇ AliBÖLÜK GüldenFELLMANN THOMAS
Citation: LANDBAUFORSCHUNG VOLKENRODE vol. 60 no. 4 p. 193-204
Publisher: FORSCHUNGSANSTALT FUR LANDWIRT BRAUNSCHWEIG VOLKENRODE
Publication Year: 2010
JRC Publication N°: JRC60662
ISSN: 0458-6859
URI: http://literatur.vti.bund.de/digbib_extern/bitv/dn047461.pdf
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC60662
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: This paper examines possible impacts of a Turkish accession to the EU on the agricultural markets in Turkey and the EU. AGMEMOD, an econometric, dynamic, multi-market, partial equilibrium economic model for EU agriculture at Member State level, has been extended with a model for the Turkish agricultural sector and afterwards applied to gain quantitative insights into Turkish accession effects. To establish a model for Turkey, the implementation of the model equations required parameter estimates, or the specification of synthetic model parameters. A database with time series on Turkish agricultural production, market balances and prices, macroeconomic variables and policy variables was developed in order to estimate such model parameters and to build an operational Turkish agriculture sector model. Most results show that the dominant impact of the Turkish accession on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of domestic producer prices, which induces further market effects. The ¿ mostly decoupled ¿ CAP support payments will induce smaller incentives to increase production than those which Turkish farmers receive prior to the EU accession. In Turkey effects of accession to the EU will be mostly negative for crop producers (except for tobacco), whereas the consumers are expected to gain from lower market prices. In contrast, producers of sheep meat, broiler and dairy milk could gain from an accession due to lower feed costs.
JRC Institute:Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.