Title: Modelling the Impacts of CAP Pillar 1 and 2 Measures on Local Economies in Europe: Testing a Case Study-Based CGE-Model Approach
Citation: JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING vol. 33 no. 1 p. 53-69
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N┬░: JRC63027
ISSN: 0161-8938
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893810001018
DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.09.005
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Since the mid-1990s, the formal evaluation of Commission policy initiatives has been an inte- gral component of the policy process in the European Union (EU) (Bradley, Dwyer, & Hill, 2010; Renda, 2006). Currently, legislation requires the ex ante (and also mid-term and ex post) impact assessment of main policy initiatives, and official requirements are set on these evaluations. Con- sequently, a large number of policy evaluations which have adopted Commission guidelines have emerged. In parallel, criticism of (for example) the rigid timing, choice of indicators (Dwyer, Bradley, & Hill, 2008) and the weaknesses in tracing the chain of causality (Midmore, Langstaff, Lowman, & Vaughan, 2008), as well as considerable progress on the development of models that can be utilized for policy impact assessment, have resulted in the emergence of several indepen- dent and EU-funded ex ante policy evaluation research efforts, often based on economic models. Within this context, this paper aims to test the feasibility of a bi-regional (rural/urban) CGE model (based on the IFPRI standard model) to assess the impacts of CAP Pillar 1 and 2 (especially Axis 3) measures on two local economies in Greece (NUTS 5) and the Czech Republic (NUTS 3). Section 2 gives an overview of relevant model applications. Section 3 briefly deals with the CGE modelling framework used in this analysis, and then presents the model construction process and the main characteristics of the CGE models built for the study areas of Bruntal (Czech Republic) and Archanes┬┐Heraklion (Greece). In this context, the SAM construction process and the model specifications in terms of calibration, parameterization and closure rules are revealed. Section 4 presents the specification of the policy shocks, while model results are presented in Section 5. The paper ends with conclusions.
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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