Title: Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment
Authors: BOGNER KonradCLOKE HannahPAPPENBERGER FlorianDE ROO ArieTHIELEN DEL POZO Jutta
Citation: International Journal of River Basin Management p. 1-12
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Publication Year: 2011
JRC Publication N°: JRC65200
ISSN: 1571-5124 (print), 1814-2060 (online)
URI: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2011.625359
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC65200
DOI: 10.1080/15715124.2011.625359
Type: Articles in Journals
Abstract: Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.
JRC Institute:Institute for Environment and Sustainability

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.