Title: Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe
Authors: MIGLIAVACCA MIRCODOSIO AlessandroCAMIA AndreaHOBOURG RasmusDURRANT TracyKAISER J.w.KHABAROV NikolayKRASOVSKII AndreyMARCOLLA BarbaraSAN-MIGUEL-AYANZ JesusWARD D.s.CESCATTI Alessandro
Citation: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES vol. 118 p. 1-16
Publisher: AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Publication Year: 2013
JRC N°: JRC85292
ISSN: 0148-0227
URI: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JG002444/abstract
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC85292
DOI: 10.1002/2013JG002444
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st 27 century are forced by 5 different high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario. Both original and bias corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions o 30 ver the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the inter-model variability. In the course of the 21st century burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity (NPP), which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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