Title: THE EFFECT OF LIMITED RENEWABLE RESOURCES ON THE ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN A LOW-CARBON EUROPE
Authors: RUIZ CASTELLO PABLOGAGO DA CAMARA SIMOES SOFIANIJS WOUTERSGOBBI ALESSANDRATHIEL CHRISTIAN
Citation: SUSTAINABLE ENERGY POLICY AND STRATEGIES FOR EUROPE
Publisher: Italian Association of Energy Economists
Publication Year: 2014
JRC N°: JRC92251
URI: http://www.iaee2014europe.it/pages/october29.html
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/proceedingssearch.aspx?conference=Rome IAEE International Conference
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC92251
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Renewable-based electricity generation technologies are recognized to be a major-prerequisite to reach a sustainable and secure energy system by 2050 [1]. From an energy-systems analysis perspective, a significant increase in the relevance of renewable electricity generation technologies is foreseen [2] both in current policies scenarios and in those targeting over 80% CO2 emission reductions in 2050. Usually the impact of current and future technology cost on their competitiveness is analysed [2], while less attention has been given to investigate the total amount of renewable resources available. Work has been already conducted to evaluate these renewable potentials [3], but still substantial uncertainties remain due to methodological challenges or due to coarse measuring resolution [4]. Moreover, technological improvements may shift the boundaries of exploitable renewable sources. It is therefore critical to understand, within an energy system perspective, how uncertainties and future changes in resource availability could influence the transition to a low-carbon system in Europe. In this paper we will assess the sensitivity of the electricity mix evolution to the available renewable energy sources potentials by analysing the response of the partial equilibrium energy model JRC-EU-TIMES [5] in the 2020-2050 time frame. Results unveil the relation between the renewable potential available for a given technology and its window of opportunity amongst its competing technologies. For instance, wind onshore shows to be more responsive to potential variations in the midterm than wind offshore. This research will help to prioritize which resource potentials may require more precise quantification, or to quantify the economic impact in the future energy system that persisting uncertainties in such potentials may have. Understanding how changes in the potential impact the energy will also help inform R&D priority setting, with a focus on those technological improvements that, other things being equal, will allow a higher share of the renewable source to be harnessed.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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