@article{JRC115865,
	address = {LONDON (ENGLAND)},
	year = {2019},
	author = {Estoque R and Ooba M and Avitabile V and Hijioka Y and Dasgupta R and Togawa T and Murayama Y},
	abstract = {While Southeast Asia’s forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region’s forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region’s forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region’s aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region’s forests and their ecosystem functions and services.
		},
	title = {The future of Southeast Asia’s forests},
	type = {Full paper},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09646-4},
	volume = {10},
	number = {},
	journal = {NATURE COMMUNICATIONS},
	pages = {1829},
	issn = {2041-1723 (online)},
	publisher = {NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-019-09646-4