@article{JRC119941,
	number = {KJ-NA-30095-EN-N (online)},
	address = {Luxembourg (Luxembourg)},
	issn = {1831-9424 (online)},
	year = {2020},
	author = {Carrara S and Alves Dias P and Plazzotta B and Pavel C},
	isbn = {978-92-76-16225-4 (online)},
	publisher = {Publications Office of the European Union},
	abstract = {Raw materials are essential to securing a transition to green energy technologies and for achieving the goals outlined in the European Green Deal. To meet the future energy demand through renewables, the power sector will face a massive deployment of wind and solar PV technologies. As result, the consumption of raw materials necessary to manufacture wind turbines and photovoltaic panels is expected to increase drastically in the coming decades. However, the EU industry is largely dependent on imports for many raw materials and in some cases is exposed to vulnerabilities in materials supply. These issues raise concerns on the availability of some raw materials needed to meet the future deployment targets for the renewable energy technologies.
		This study aims at estimating the future demand for raw materials in wind turbines and solar PV following several decarbonisation scenarios.  
		For the EU, the materials demand trends were built on the EU legally binding targets by 2030 and deployment scenarios targeting a climate-neutral economy by 2050. At a global level, the generation capacity scenarios were selected based on various global commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy efficiency. 
		Alongside the power generation capacity, the materials demand calculations considered three more factors such as the plant lifetime, sub-technology market share and materials intensity. By evaluating and combining those factors, three demand scenarios were built characterised by low, medium and high materials demands.
		For wind turbines, the annual materials demand will increase from 2-fold up to 15-fold depending on the material and the scenario considered. Significant demand increases are expected for both structural materials - concrete, steel, plastic, glass, aluminium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, and zinc - and technology specific materials such as rare earths and minor metals. 
		In the EU the biggest increase in materials demand will be for onshore wind, with significantly lower variations for offshore wind, while on a global scale the situation is opposite. The most significant example is that of rare earths (e.g. dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium and terbium) used in permanent magnets-based wind turbines. In the most severe scenario, the EU annual demand for these rare earths can increase 6 times in 2030 and up to 15 times in 2050 compared to 2018 values. As consequence, by 2050, the deployment of wind turbines, according to EU decarbonisation goals, will require alone most of the neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium currently available to the EU market. In the high demand scenario, the global demand for rare earths in wind turbines could increase between 8-9 times in 2030 and 11-14 times in 2050 compared to 2018 values, a slightly lower increase compared to the EU. 
		For solar PV technologies there are large differences in material demand between different scenarios, especially for those specific materials used in the manufacturing of PV cells. In the most optimistic case, improvements in material intensities can lead to a net decrease in materials demand. In the medium demand scenario, the balance between capacity deployment and the material intensities will result in a moderate increase in demand ranging from 3 to 8 fold for most materials. In the high demand scenario it is expected an increase in demand for all materials, for example a 4-fold increase for silver and up to a 12-fold increase for silicon in 2050. For cadmium, gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium the change in the demand will be more significant, up to a 40 times increase in 2050. Th