@article{JRC121368,
	number = {KJ-NA-30317-EN-N (online)},
	address = {Luxembourg (Luxembourg)},
	issn = {1831-9424 (online)},
	year = {2021},
	author = {Barreiro Hurle J and Bogonos M and Himics M and Hristov J and Perez Dominguez I and Sahoo A and Salputra G and Weiss F and Baldoni E and Elleby C},
	isbn = {978-92-76-20889-1 (online)},
	publisher = {Publications Office of the European Union},
	abstract = {During the last 30 years, the Common Agricultural Policy has increased the importance given to improving the environmental and climate performance of the European agriculture, as confirmed by the Future CAP proposal. Furthermore, the Green Deal strategy outlined a comprehensive approach to facilitate the transition towards sustainable food systems that links in a holistic approach all actors in the system, a path sketched out in the Farm to Fork (F2F) and Biodiversity (BDS) Strategies. Reflecting this ambition, this report was a contribution to the 2030 Climate Target Plan impact assessment, based on one of the main models used by the European Commission for agricultural policy analysis (the CAPRI model), which can incorporate some of the policies put forward for accelerating the transition towards sustainable food systems. 
		The report presents a modelled scenario of an ambitious implementation of the CAP reform proposals to measure the effects on EU agriculture including four quantitative targets put forward in the F2F and BDS strategies already reflected in the recommendations of the Commission to the Member States on their CAP Strategic Plans. These targets were selected as the ones with the greatest potential to affect agricultural environment and production. Moreover, those are the targets to which the CAP can provide specific contribution.
		The analysis includes a reduction of the risk and use of pesticides, a reduction of nutrient surplus, an increase of area under organic farming, and an increase of area for high-diversity landscape features. The impacts are modelled under three scenarios. One is a status quo scenario assuming no change in the CAP compared to its implementation during 2014-2020.  The other two scenarios include a potential implementation of the CAP post 2020 legal proposal targeting these objectives, both with and without the targeted use of Next Generation EU funding.
		However, the report does not constitute an impact assessment of the strategies as such; the modelling scope does not include all of the strategies’ measures (e.g. food waste reduction targets, dietary shifts, organic action plan) which would alter the impacts reported. Not all policies that affect the transition are captured by this model. Other analytical approaches and tools are necessary to arrive at a more complete picture of the potential impacts of this transition. As these two strategies propose a comprehensive approach to move towards sustainable food systems, their inclusion requires additional assumptions to capture positive synergies between the different initiatives and additional tools to cover the limitations of the modelling approach used. Therefore, impacts should be considered representing an upper bound of the full impact of the strategies as they are partial in scope (mainly covering the supply side) and incomplete (as the required future changes in consumer behaviour are not captured in the model). 
		Based on the assumptions made and taking into account the limitations of the analysis, modelling results indicate that reaching these four targets under the current CAP implementation achieves significant environmental benefits in the form of reductions in greenhouse gases and ammonia emissions as well as in gross nutrient surplus, though the extent in terms of positive environmental and economic benefits is not fully quantified. Results also show a decline in EU production and variations in prices and income for selected agricultural products, albeit in different degrees. This impact can be lowered by approx