@article{JRC31445,
	address = {Oxford (Great Britain)},
	year = {2006},
	author = {Ruffo P and Bazzana L and Consonni A and Corradi A and Saltelli A and Tarantola S},
	abstract = {The evaluation of the exploration risk in the oil industry is a fundamental com¬ponent of the decision process related to the ex¬ploratory phase.   In this paper the two basic components of the exploratory risk: trap geometry and trapped hydrocarbon quantities (fluid), are compounded in a single coherent uncertainty and sen¬sitivity approach.   The results clarify that the model geometry influences each Petroleum System Modeling step and that the geo¬metric uncertainty is correlated with the fluid uncer¬tainty.   The geometric uncertainty evalua¬tion makes use of geostatistical techniques, that produce a number of possible realizations of the trap geometry, all compatible with available data.   The evaluation of the fluid uncertainty, through a Monte Carlo methodology, allows us to compute the possible quantities of oil and gas, generated in a basin and migrated from the hydrocarbon source location to each single trap.   The final result is the probability distribution of oil and gas for each trap in the basin, to¬gether with other useful indicators like: the hydrocarbon filling probability map, the closure prob¬ability map, the drainage area prob¬ability map, the spilling paths probabilities, the trap filling scenarios.
		
		
		
		
		
		
		
		
		
		},
	title = {Hydrocarbon Exploration Risk Evaluation Through Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Techniques},
	type = {},
	url = {},
	volume = {91},
	number = {},
	journal = {RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY},
	pages = {1155-1162},
	issn = {},
	publisher = {ELSEVIER SCI LTD},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ress.2005.