@book{JRC41103,
	editor = {},
	address = {Luxembourg (Luxembourg)},
	year = {2007},
	author = {Ramos M and Thielen Del Pozo J and Bartholmes J},
	isbn = {},
	abstract = {This study deals with the analysis and interpretation of case studies in view to defining rules to
		an objective and statistical evaluation of ensemble flood forecasts from the European Flood
		Alert System (EFAS). First, we investigate EFAS forecasts on a flood-event basis. The aim is
		to investigate the ability of EFAS flood forecasts based on Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
		to provide earlier warning, comparatively and/or complementarily to the forecasts based on
		deterministic weather forecasts. Secondly, a statistical analysis of the flood events forecasted
		over the flood-prone periods of summer 2005 and spring 2006 is performed. The analysis
		focuses on i) the statistical evaluation of hits, misses and false alarms as a function of the
		number of EPS-based simulations exceeding a given EFAS flood alert threshold and ii) on the
		comparative analysis of gain in preparedness (early forecasting) when operational alert rules
		are applied on both forecasts based on probabilistic and deterministic weather forecasts to
		define a potential flooding situation. The analyses were performed over a number of
		representative points selected throughout the Danube and the Elbe river basins.
		},
	title = {EFAS EPS Based Forecasts: In-depth Case Study Analyses and Statistical Evaluation of Summer 2005 and Spring 2006 Flood Forecasts },
	url = {},
	volume = {},
	number = {},
	journal = {},
	pages = {97-100},
	issn = {},
	publisher = {OPOCE},
	doi = {}
}