Title: Regional patterns of energy production and consumption factors in Europe Exploratory Project EREBILAND - European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape
Authors: BARANZELLI CLAUDIALAVALLE CARLOSGOBBI ALESSANDRAAURAMBOUT JEAN PHILIPPETROMBETTI MARCOJACOBS CHRISTIAANCRISTOBAL GARCIA JORGEKANCS D'ARTISKAVALOV BOYAN
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC100024
ISBN: 978-92-79-54577-1 (online)
978-92-79-63945-6 (ePub)
ISSN: 1831-9424
Other Identifiers: EUR 27697
OP LB-NA-27697-EN-N (online)
OP LB-NA-27697-EN-E (ePub)
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC100024
DOI: 10.2788/357099
10.2788/249915
Type: eBook
Abstract: The Resilient Energy Union with Forward Looking Climate Change Policy is one the ten priorities of the overarching Agenda for Jobs, Growth, Fairness and Democratic Change of the European Commission. The Communication on the Energy Union package and its Annex clearly identify EU-wide targets and policy objectives. The Exploratory Project EREBILAND (European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape) aims at supporting efficient patterns of regional energy supply and demand in Europe. Integration of spatial scales, from EU-wide to regional or local, and a cross-sector approach, are at the core of the project. The approach is based on territorial disaggregation of information, and the development of optimisation scenarios at regional scale. It is centred around the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform for the assessment of policies and investments that have spatial impacts, in interaction with the JRC-EU-TIMES model – a bottom-up, technology-rich model representing the EU28+ energy system – and the model RHOMOLO that integrates economic and some social dimensions of regional development. Based on currently operational and up-to-date tools available within the EC, the purpose of the EREBILAND project is to: • provide an overview of the current trends of regional energy production and consumption patterns, and • link these patterns to the structural characteristics of the regions, among which: population density and urbanisation trends, development of different economic sectors, and availability of resources and technological infrastructure. This report presents the outcomes of the EREBILAND Project during its first year. In particular, electricity generation and energy consumed by transport sector are analysed, under the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013, throughout the period 2015 - 2030. Main results of the analysis dedicated to the electricity generation are: • Electricity generation from biomass increases in the large majority of European regions; a slight decrease can be found only in regions producing electricity already in 2015 above the EU28 average (in Denmark). • Electricity produced from biogas experiences less steep changes then biomass, with almost 50% of NUTS2 decreasing or not changing considerably the amount of electricity produced from this source. • Coal: electricity generated from lignite undergoes a significant reduction in all regions using this fuel already in 2015. Conversely, trends in electricity generated from hard coal are more stable, with some regions experiencing an increase: the average change is higher than 50% (a few regions in Eastern European countries), but steeper increases can be found in Austria, Sweden and the United Kingdom. • The amount of electricity generated from gas generally decreases across Europe from 2015 to 2030, with an average decrease higher than 90%. • Geothermal is the least diffuse source used to generate electricity in Europe and only few regions are represented. • Hydroelectric: the amount of electricity generated from this source is in general forecasted to increase in Europe from 2015 to 2030. Exceptions are a few regions in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and most NUTS2 in the UK. • Electricity generated from nuclear is forecasted to decrease in the majority of the regions with active nuclear power plants in 2015. • Oil: the majority of the regions generating electricity from this fuel in 2015, experience a decrease in 2030. Notable exceptions are a few regions in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovenia. • Electricity produced from solar is forecasted to increase in almost three quarters of European regions. The only regions where electricity from solar is forecasted to decrease are located in Greece and Romania. • Wind: electricity generated from wind, both on- and off-shore, is in general forecasted to increase in Europe. The largest increases in electricity generated from on-shore wind (above 5 times the 2015 generation levels) can be found in few regions in Czech Republic, Finland, Lubuskie in Poland, the north-est NUTS2 in Romania, Western Slovakia and Slovenia. Main results of the analysis dedicated to energy consumption of the transport sector are: • In more than two thirds of European regions, the energy supplied to cars (fuel: diesel) decreases from 2015 to 2030, with an average decrease of almost 20%. • The energy supplied to cars (fuels: gas and LPG) is forecasted to decrease throughout all European regions. The decrease is more gradual in few regions in Denmark, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy. • Energy supplied to cars (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to decrease in more than 80% of the European regions, with an average decrease of 27%. • The energy supplied to heavy duty trucks (fuel: diesel) is forecasted to progressively decrease from 2015 to 2030 in 66% of the European regions, with an average decrease of more than 8%. • The energy supplied to light duty trucks (fuel: diesel) is forecasted to steeply decrease throughout European regions. • The energy supplied to light duty trucks (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to increase in more than 90% of European regions, with an average increase of more than 40% from 2015 to 2030. The highest increases (above 70%) take place in eleven regions in Germany, Walloon Brabant in Belgium, Flevoland in the Netherlands, Lower Austria and Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. • The energy supplied to inter-city buses running on diesel is forecasted to increase from 2015 to 2030 in the large majority of European regions, with an average increase of more than 19%. • The energy supplied to urban buses (fuels: gas, diesel and gasoline) is going to moderately increase from 2015 to 2030 in almost 90% regions throughout EU-28, with an average growth of 15%. • Energy supplied to motorcycles (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to increase in more than 80% of European NUTS2, with an average growth of 16%. • Energy supplied to cars (fuels: hybrid, electric and hydrogen) is forecasted to increase throughout Europe, in general with sharp increases. • Energy supplied to heavy duty trucks (fuel: gas) and light duty trucks (fuel: LPG) is forecasted to increase in all European regions from 2015 to 2020. In most NUTS2 this trend is kept or even accelerates between 2020 and 2030. The only regions where the trend is reversed (lower energy supplied in 2030 compared to 2020) are located in Poland, Greece, Finland (only Åland) and Croatia (only Jadranska Hrvatska).
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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