Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental
assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence
of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny,
unlike the influence of soil data. Here, we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected
for GGCM simulations to weather-induced yield variability. Without fertilizer application, soil-type
related yield variability generally outweighs the simulated inter-annual variability in yield due to
weather. Increasing applications of fertilizer and irrigation reduce this variability until it is
practically negligible. Importantly, estimated climate change effects on yield can be either negative
or positive depending on the chosen soil type. Soils thus have the capacity to either buffer or
amplify these impacts. Our findings call for improvements in soil data available for crop modelling
and more explicit accounting for soil variability in GGCM simulations.
FOLBERTH Chris;
SKALSKY R;
MOLTCHANOVA Elena;
BALKOVIC Juraj;
AZEVEDO Ligia;
OBERSTEINER Michael;
VAN DER VELDE Marijn;
2016-08-24
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
JRC100437
2041-1723,
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2016/160621/ncomms11872/full/ncomms11872.html,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC100437,
10.1038/ncomms11872,
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