Title: Towards estimates of future rainfall erosivity in Europe based on REDES and WorldClim datasets
Authors: PANAGOS PANAGIOTISBALLABIO CRISTIANOMEUSBURGER KATRINSPINONI JONATHANALEWELL CHRISTINEBORRELLI PASQUALE
Citation: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY vol. 548 p. 251-262
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Publication Year: 2017
JRC N°: JRC100902
ISSN: 0022-1694
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169417301439
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC100902
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.006
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The policy requests to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion, i.e. rainfall erosivity and land cover change. The recently developed Rainfall Erosivity Database at European Scale (REDES) and a statistical approach used to spatially interpolate rainfall erosivity data have the potential to become useful knowledge to predict future rainfall erosivity based on climate scenarios. The use of a thorough statistical modelling approach (Gaussian Process Regression), with the selection of the most appropriate covariates (monthly precipitation, temperature datasets and bioclimatic layers), allowed to predict the rainfall erosivity based on climate change scenarios. The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010). The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projections of most erosive months (hot period: April–September). The output results report a pan-European projection of future rainfall erosivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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