Overview of forecast communication and use of ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts

Over the last few decades, hydro-meteorological forecasting, warning and decision making has benefited greatly from advances in the natural, physical, computing and social sciences. A fast developing computing capability has enabled meteorologists to produce so called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) and which are now applied in various sectors including hydrological applications for the forecasting and simulation of floods, flash floods, droughts, and for water management decision making. EPS allow us to quantify the uncertainty in our forecasts in a meaningful way and to better understand the limits of predictability (Thielen et al, 2009) and to provide decision makers with increased useful lead times to prepare for the event. This amount and breath of material in this handbook is the evidence for the importance that hydrological ensemble prediction systems are playing in various applications in hydrology.

THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;  BRUEN Michael; 

2018-01-31

Springer

JRC100951

978-3-642-40457-3,   

https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-642-40457-3_40-1,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC100951,   

10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_40-1,