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dc.contributor.authorKELLERMANN Patricen_GB
dc.contributor.authorBUBECK Philipen_GB
dc.contributor.authorKUNDELA Guenteren_GB
dc.contributor.authorDOSIO Alessandroen_GB
dc.contributor.authorTHIEKEN Annegret Hen_GB
dc.identifier.citationCLIMATE vol. 4 no. 2 p. 25en_GB
dc.description.abstractMeteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risk to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analysed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analysed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate and – if needed – to adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managementen_GB
dc.publisherMDPI AGen_GB
dc.titleFrequency analysis of critical meteorological conditions in a changing climate - Assessing future implications for railway transportation in Austriaen_GB
dc.typeArticles in periodicals and booksen_GB
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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