Title: Multi-scale land-use disaggregation modelling: Concept and application to EU Countries
Citation: ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE vol. 82 p. 183-217
Publication Year: 2016
JRC N°: JRC101522
ISSN: 1364-8152
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216301232
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.028
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Changes of carbon stocks in agricultural soils, emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, and the delivery of ecosystem services of agricultural landscapes depend on combinations of land-use, livestock density, farming prac-tices, climate and soil types. Many environmental processes are highly non-linear. If the analysis of the environmental impact is based on data at a rela-tively coarse-scale (e.g. farm, country, or large administrative regions), con-clusions can be misleading. For an accurate assessment of agri-environmental indicators, data of agricultural activities and their dynamics are needed at high spatial resolution. In this paper, we develop and validate a spatial model for predicting the agricultural land-use areas within the homogenous spatial units (HSUs). For the EU-28 countries, we distinguish about 1:5 x 10^5 HSUs and we consider 30 possible land-uses to match with the classification used in the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model. The comparison of model predictions with independent observations and with a simple rule-based approach at HSU level demonstrates that the predictions are generally accurate in more than 75% of HSUs. The frequent crops orland-use are better predicted. For non-frequent crops and/or crops requiring specific cultivation conditions, the model needs further fine-tuning
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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