Changes in the Black Sea physical properties and their effect on the ecosystem
In the framework of EU-MC project SIMSEA, numerous hindcast runs of the Black Sea hydrodynamic model (Miladinova-Marinova et al., 2016) have been performed to distinguish possible trends for the Black Sea climate change environment. Increasing trend of the annual mean as well as winter mean sea surface temperature are established. Namely, the annual mean sea surface temperature is increased with 0.03 °C year-1 from 1982 to 2014. The entire value of the growth depends on the meteorological forcing. Comparing the salinity patterns from runs with different positive salinity fluxes at the Bosphorus Straits we could conclude for the approximate value of the bottom salinity in the Straits. Surface salinity (not relaxed in the model) does not display an obvious trend. An analysis of the trend in inter-annual summer-mean cold intermediate layer temperature evolution reveals an increasing trend 0.01°C year-1 during last three decades.
In the model validation process it is found that our model forced with historical downscaled CORDEX data simulates appropriately the Black Sea’s physical properties at seasonal and inter-annual scales, though lower precipitation or higher evaporation than the climatologically mean gives rise to relatively elevated surface salinity. Future climate scenarios based on CORDEX model could be used as a meteorological forcing in shortcoming future scenarios after bias correction procedure.
Several estimates of the effect of the Black Sea hydrodynamic conditions on the evolution of its ecosystem have been done. The numerical experiments based on BSSM biogeochemical model (Miladinova-Marinova et al., 2016) indicate that the biogeochemical components of the model rather successfully reproduce the main features and state variable evolution in the Black Sea ecosystem: the growth in phytoplankton biomass and changes in seasonal cycles of the main ecosystem components. It is confirmed that the physical processes are important for a reliable reproduction of seasonal and inter-annual changes in the ecosystem.
MILADINOVA-MARINOVA Svetla;
STIPS Adolf;
GARCIA GORRIZ Elisa;
MACIAS MOY Diego;
2016-08-24
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC102514
978-92-79-58864-8 (print),
978-92-79-58865-5,
1018-5593 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 28060,
OP LB-NA-28060-EN-C (print),
OP LB-NA-28060-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC102514,
10.2788/69832 (print),
10.2788/757417 (online),
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