Title: Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods
Authors: LIU BingASSENG SentholdMULLER ChristophEWERT FrankELLIOTT JoshuaLOBELL DavidMARTRE PierreRUANE AlexWALLACH DanielJONES J.ROSENZWEIG C.AGGARWAL PramodALDERMAN PhillipANOTHAI JakaratBASSO BrunoBIERNATH ChristianCAMMARANO DavideCHALLINOR AndrewDERYNG DelphineDE SANCTIS GIACOMODOLTRA JordiFERERES EliasFOLBERTH ChrisGARCÍA VILA MargaritaGAYLER SebastianHOOGENBOOM GerritHUNT Leslie A.IZAURRALDE Roberto C.JABLOUN MohamedJONES CurtisKERSEBAUMH Kurt ChristianKIMBALL BruceKOEHLER Ann-KristinKUMAR Soora NareshNENDEL ClaasO'LEARY GarryOLESEN Jorgen E.OTTMAN MichaelPALOSUO TaruPRASAD VaraPRIESACK EckartPUGH Michael A. M.REYNOLDS MatthewREZAEI Ehsan E.ROTTER Reimund P.SCHMID ErwinSEMENOV MikhailSHCHERBAK IuriiSTEHFEST ElkeSTOCKLE ClaudioSTRATONOVITCH PierreSTRECK ThiloSUPIT IwanTAO FuluTHORBURN PeterWAHA KatharinaWALL Gerard W.WANG EnliWHITE JeffreyWOLF JoostZHAO ZhiganZHU Yan
Citation: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE vol. 6 p. 1130-1136
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Publication Year: 2016
JRC N°: JRC103477
ISSN: 1758-678X
URI: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n12/full/nclimate3115.html
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC103477
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3115
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1◦C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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