Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1◦C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

LIU Bing;  ASSENG Senthold;  MULLER Christoph;  EWERT Frank;  ELLIOTT Joshua;  LOBELL David;  MARTRE Pierre;  RUANE Alex;  WALLACH Daniel;  JONES J.;  ROSENZWEIG C.;  AGGARWAL Pramod;  ALDERMAN Phillip;  ANOTHAI Jakarat;  BASSO Bruno;  BIERNATH Christian;  CAMMARANO Davide;  CHALLINOR Andrew;  DERYNG Delphine;  DE SANCTIS Giacomo;  DOLTRA Jordi;  FERERES Elias;  FOLBERTH Chris;  GARCÍA VILA Margarita;  GAYLER Sebastian;  HOOGENBOOM Gerrit;  HUNT Leslie A.;  IZAURRALDE Roberto C.;  JABLOUN Mohamed;  JONES Curtis;  KERSEBAUMH Kurt Christian;  KIMBALL Bruce;  KOEHLER Ann-Kristin;  KUMAR Soora Naresh;  NENDEL Claas;  O'LEARY Garry;  OLESEN Jorgen E.;  OTTMAN Michael;  PALOSUO Taru;  PRASAD Vara;  PRIESACK Eckart;  PUGH Michael A. M.;  REYNOLDS Matthew;  REZAEI Ehsan E.;  ROTTER Reimund P.;  SCHMID Erwin;  SEMENOV Mikhail;  SHCHERBAK Iurii;  STEHFEST Elke;  STOCKLE Claudio;  STRATONOVITCH Pierre;  STRECK Thilo;  SUPIT Iwan;  TAO Fulu;  THORBURN Peter;  WAHA Katharina;  WALL Gerard W.;  WANG Enli;  WHITE Jeffrey;  WOLF Joost;  ZHAO Zhigan;  ZHU Yan; 

2016-12-07

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP

JRC103477

1758-678X,   

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n12/full/nclimate3115.html,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC103477,   

10.1038/nclimate3115,