Title: Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
Authors: RAO ShilpaKLIMONT ZbigniewSMITH Steven, JVAN DINGENEN RitaDENTENER FranciscusBOUWMAN L.RIAHI KeywanAMANN MarkusBODIRSKY Benjamin L.VAN VUUREN DetlefALELUIA REIS LauraCALVIN Katherine V.DROUET LaurentFRICKO OlivierFUJIMORI ShinichiroGERNAAT DavidHAVLIK PetrHARMSEN J.h. MathijsHASEGAWA T.HEYES ChrisHILAIRE JeromeLUDERER GunnarMASUI ToshihikoSTEHFEST ElkeSTREFFLER JessicaVAN DER SLUIS SietskeTAVONI Massimo
Citation: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS vol. 42 p. 346-358
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Publication Year: 2017
JRC N°: JRC104040
ISSN: 0959-3780
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378016300723
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC104040
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.012
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.