Cyclical dissimilarities among the European economies: the impact of the European recessions

In this paper, we study the cyclical dissimilarities of European economies in the course of the current crisis. To this aim, we first suggest an extension of the Harding and Pagan's measure by quantifying the similarity of series in terms of business and growth cycles. This measure is based on the cyclical turning points defined in the ABCD approach and which are estimated by Eurostat. We use this measure to cluster the countries according to their cyclical dissimilarities in relation to their business and growth cycle. This clustering is performed over two time frames: a 4-year rolling window and fixed periods. Different clustering approaches have been compared. We found an increase in dissimilarities among European countries in the wake of the European crisis of 2011-12.

ANAS Jacques;  CALÈS Ludovic;  MAZZI Gian Luigi; 

2017-01-09

EUROSTAT - European Commission

JRC104568

2443-7832,