Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensifying teleconnection patterns

In this study we conducted a comprehensive modelling analysis to identify global trends in extreme Wave Energy Flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emissions pathway (RCP8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100-year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the Southern Temperate Zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) and more extreme wave activity.

MENTASCHI Lorenzo;  VOUSDOUKAS Michail;  VOUKOUVALAS Evangelos;  DOSIO Alessandro;  FEYEN Luc; 

2017-05-29

AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION

JRC105464

0094-8276,   

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL072488/abstract,    jsessionid=31DCDF7FD6B861E5321E49B5C685442F.f03t04,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC105464,   

10.1002/2016GL072488,