Title: Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensifying teleconnection patterns
Citation: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS vol. 44 no. 5 p. 2416–2426
Publication Year: 2017
JRC N°: JRC105464
ISSN: 0094-8276
URI: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL072488/abstract;jsessionid=31DCDF7FD6B861E5321E49B5C685442F.f03t04
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072488
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: In this study we conducted a comprehensive modelling analysis to identify global trends in extreme Wave Energy Flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emissions pathway (RCP8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100-year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the Southern Temperate Zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low-lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) and more extreme wave activity.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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