A Systems Thinking Approach to Open Source Information Analysis For Nuclear Non Proliferation

Nuclear programmes are complex engineering programmes lasting several years, involving multiple sites and a substantial number of personnel with a wide range of expertise. States willing to embark in such an enterprise would have to either sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and benefit from the transfer of technology enabled by its membership or develop the necessary science, technology and industrial capability autonomously. States signatories of the NPT renounce the possibility to develop a nuclear military programme and are subject to international nuclear safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Agency, in its assessment, performs an all-source analysis making use of all the information and knowledge available to it, including closed-source (official State’s declarations, inspection data, third parties information) and open source information. This paper provides an overview of what is open source analysis when taking a holistic perspective and how it could be used to detect and monitor a complex engineering programme as a nuclear programme, here described adopting a systems thinking, holistic point of view. Illustrative examples of open source analysis related to the Enrichment fuel cycle step will be presented.

RENDA Guido;  COJAZZI Giacomo;  CAGNO Simone;  KIM Lance Kyungwoo; 

2017-12-20

European Commission- Joint Research Centre

JRC105992

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/event/workshop/splg2017,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC105992,