Full metadata record
DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorSAIOTE CARRAO HUGO MIGUELen_GB
dc.contributor.authorNAUMANN GUSTAVOen_GB
dc.contributor.authorMARINHO FERREIRA BARBOSA PAULOen_GB
dc.date.accessioned2018-03-10T01:11:47Z-
dc.date.available2018-03-08en_GB
dc.date.available2018-03-10T01:11:47Z-
dc.date.created2018-03-06en_GB
dc.date.issued2018en_GB
dc.date.submitted2017-04-26en_GB
dc.identifier.citationCLIMATE DYNAMICS vol. 50 no. 5-6 p. 2137-2155en_GB
dc.identifier.issn0930-7575en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8en_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC106665-
dc.description.abstractProjections of drought hazard (dH) changes have been mapped from five biascorrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the efective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP) index, dH changes have been assessed for mid- (2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: 1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take efective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; 2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managementen_GB
dc.format.mediumOnlineen_GB
dc.languageENGen_GB
dc.publisherSPRINGERen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJRC106665en_GB
dc.titleGlobal projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk managementen_GB
dc.typeArticles in periodicals and booksen_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00382-017-3740-8en_GB
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.